what are the splits to run 44 in a 400m

The 100m has 10 seconds, the 200m has xx seconds and the 400m has 44 seconds. Thus far only 1 athlete in history has managed to dip under all iii of these magical sprint barriers: Wayde van Niekerk.

Last year I wrote a slice where I theorized almost the possibility of a sub-19 seconds 200m run. And while I estimated that the current human limit is at eighteen.eight seconds, I did conclude that 19.00 (and lower) is decidedly beyond the reach of whatever professional athlete competing today (maybe there's a special kid somewhere that we haven't seen all the same).

And so forget near that for now and forget about the two hr marathon. The next big barrier in athletics is a 400m race run in under 43 seconds, and it might be simply around the corner because Wayde van Niekerk has conclusively proved that it's already possible without having to resort to theorizing nigh perfect splits!

All we need is some elementary arithmetic based on what we already know about his world tape of 43.03 seconds.

Firstly─and probably most importantly─his reaction time in Rio was 0.181 seconds, which is acceptable in terms of running the 400m, but it gives him some room for improvement as he finer covered the distance in 42.85 seconds, which is surprisingly even faster than Michael Johnson's flying relay divide of 42.91* from 1993. For comparison, Johnson had a reaction fourth dimension of 0.150 seconds when he ran the previous world tape of 43.xviii seconds in 1999 in Seville, which means that he covered the distance in 43.03; what a nice foreshadowing :).

* official IAAF sources range from 42.91 to 42.94.

If Wayde van Niekerk managed to have a perfect offset of 0.100 seconds, he would accept run 42.95! But, more than realistically, he could accept run 42.99 if he would have matched Kirani James' reaction of 0.134, which was the best reaction of all the Olympic finalists in Rio.

In short, van Niekerk's potential in Rio was:

  • 42.85  – with starting blocks & without reaction time,
  • 42.95 – with a perfect reaction time of 0.100 s,
  • 42.99 – with a realistic reaction time of 0.134 due south.

He really was and notwithstanding is tantalizingly shut to 42.Xx.

All the same, is it possible that the 43.03 run was a once in a lifetime performance? Maybe, but I don't call up and then, even though at that place is always a big possibility that the athlete has peaked when they've already run a globe record.

What gives me a lot of hope is the fact that he's still improving his elevation end speed and hopefully not at the expense of speed endurance. He has run a couple of races this yr and and then far he definitely seems to be on track to exist in merely as adept a shape (if not better) equally he was concluding twelvemonth at the Olympics.

If he does indeed manage to come to London Earth Championships in grade, then I think that there's a definite possibility of him going under 43 seconds this twelvemonth. That is if he peaks at the right time and runs his best race of the season on the biggest stage (like he already proved capable of doing in 2015 and 2016).

Van Niekerk standing proudly side by side to his World record of 43.03 seconds in the 400m. The race is on to become the first human being in history to go under 43 seconds and achieve immortality in the sport. Van Niekerk proved that it is possible by running 42.85 seconds if we decrease his reaction fourth dimension of 0.181 seconds. Only will he be the one to do it?

I'm confident that van Niekerk is the human being to beat in the 400m, merely the thing that has me slightly worried going into this season is – cartel I say – his hubris in trying to also run the 100m & 200m. The latter two are actually his favourite events, just he moved up to the 400m a few years ago due to hamstring issues.

In a lot of means he is like the male version of Allyson Felix. The depth and quality of their personal bests ranging from 100m to 400m is currently unmatched, simply I promise that he doesn't go overburdened by running all three of the sprint events this yr. I know that Wayde is but doing the 100m every bit training for the time being, but he volition nonetheless attempt to emulate the great Michael Johnson by going for the insanely difficult 200/400 double in London. The contest schedule has recently been changed to conform his wish, simply it withal means that round one of the 200m is gonna be held merely 2 hours before the 400m final. He'll desire to conserve every bit much energy as possible, so it might work confronting him if he's placed in a tough group where he's gonna have to work harder than he'll want to to get through.

In whatever case, doing the shorter sprints will definitely assist with his speed, but the question of whether this will let a faster 400m remains.

200m & 400m Correlation

A lot of interesting comments were posted to my analysis of van Niekerk's tape-breaking run, but the post-obit one stuck in my mind ever since I start read it:

"Over 20 years ago I wrote an article about U.s. 400 meter runners. What the article simply stated is that any 400 meter runner who could run nether 20 seconds in the open 200 meters is capable of running 43.0 or better if they are willing to go far the right condition." –James Robertson

James Robertson

Information technology'southward definitely a plausible argument, if only slightly optimistic in a mode where it proposes that a xx.0 south 200m athlete is capable of running the showtime one-half of the 400m in ~21.0 and the 2d half in ~22.0.

The quote also indirectly refers to the famous formula for predicting the 400m time, which is washed past multiplying the 200m time by 2 and adding about 4 seconds for slowdown.

Formula 400m potential

We manifestly want the slowdown to exist every bit small as possible, but I merely want to betoken out that it's never gonna exist less than 0s in the globe of competitive sprinting, i.east., it's impossible to run a truly fast 400m fourth dimension by running any 200m separate faster than your 200m personal best. This is in contrast with the 200m where your second (aka flying) 100m should always be faster than your regular 100m with blocks.

With that out of the way, let's expect at Johnson's season best times in the 200/400 (with S for slowdown) and encounter if we can find anything useful.

Johnson times

(slowdown: Due south = t400m – 2 x t200m)

Keep in mind though that he might have been in better 200m shape when he ran his 400m season'southward bests and vice-versa (he ran some SBs months autonomously for instance).

Johnson'southward slowdown when looking at his 200/400 PBs was 4.54 southward. His all-time seasonal slowdown was 3.06 in 1998, arguably because of a rather weak 200m time, and his worst slowdown was 5.55 at the kickoff of his career in 1988. His average slowdown of 4.28 over the bridge of his unabridged career is proof that our standard formula with a 4 second slowdown is a fairly good predictor of the 400m potential based on 200m.

Van Niekerk'southward 200m SB in 2016 was twenty.02, so his slowdown in the 400m was just 2.99 seconds (S = 43.03 – two 10 20.02). This leads me to believe that he was either capable of more in the 200m or that his speed endurance was phenomenal. It'due south probable a combination of both as he has already run 19.90 at the showtime of this season.

But speed e'er comes at the expense of endurance and the 400m isthe definitive consequence for speed endurance. Outright speed or outright endurance won't get y'all across the line in optimal mode, so a perfect combination of these two elements is key.

In any case, it's obvious that a faster season'due south best time in the 200m doesn't directly translate to a faster 400m as well. Over again, contrast this with the 100/200 combination where a faster 100m fourth dimension will almost always interpret to a faster 200m time.

So it seems to be the case that at some point having too much speed in the 200m becomes detrimental to your overall 400m speed endurance. Otherwise─based on our formula─y'all'd expect the likes of Usain Bolt (9.58/nineteen.nineteen in the 100/200), Yohan Blake (9.69/19.26, but actually 19.44 ), Tyson Gay (9.69/19.58) etc. to have much faster 400m times, simply of the in a higher place-mentioned, only Gay managed to go under 45 seconds with 44.89 (he was the commencement athlete to go under 10/xx/45 2d barriers).

Usain Bolt in particular had the potential to be much faster in the 400m, only he never pursued it seriously because of (in his words) the grueling training demands of the longer dart distance. If he did, his times in the short sprints would undoubtedly suffer.

Faster 100m near linearly translates to a faster 200m time. Male athletes should exist able to double their 200m time in relation to the 100m, just the 400m (as seen in the table to a higher place) is much harder to predict in this way.

So if we plot the human relationship betwixt the 100m & 200m times, it would look something like this:

ChartGo

Significant that the 200m time is usually double the 100m time (10.0 in the 100m should requite you a ~20.0 in the 200m and so on).

And the plot for the relationship betwixt the 200m & 400m is more like this:

ChartGo (2)

Meaning that in that location seems to exist a sweet spot between speed & endurance that produces the fastest times in the 400m. For demonstration purposes I chose the sugariness spot at xx.0 seconds considering that'due south the region where Johnson & van Niekerk had their SB times in the years when they broke the 400m world record.

This parabola can of form be moved to the left or right, depending on the data y'all use, then once more, please proceed in mind that this is but for demonstration purposes and isn't supposed to be taken every bit seriously as the 100/200 graph.

Usain Bolt'due south 19.19 for case doesn't simply translate to 42.38 (based on our formula in a higher place), merely closer to 46 southward. His PB of 45.28 is from 2003 when his 200m PB was xx.13. Mind yous, he was only 17 at the time, so nosotros can sadly only speculate about what Commodities's true potential was, but I'm confident that information technology was deep in the low 43s.

wayde-van-niekerk.jpg

In decision, I will say that Wayde van Niekerk is at a unique moment in his career. He's eagerly edifice upon the best 2 seasons of his career and so far and the depth of quality sprinters in the 400m is amend than ever.

I find a lot of parallels with Bolt'due south record-breaking menses of 2008 & 2009. Wayde is however on a realistic path of making progress and it truly is a mouthwatering prospect to imagine what he could run in the 400m if he manages to couple his amazing endurance with the newly developed speed.

I'd say that there's a big chance of usa seeing at least a sub 43.5 time this yr and virtually a 30% chance of 42.nine.

Žiga P. Škraba

landrygons1967.blogspot.com

Source: https://zigapskraba.com/2017/05/26/400m-and-the-43-second-barrier/

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